Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aa65370e0cb5ddd1a7faf88f34b201c35491eff807ed8e3babfeaea1a4fe252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $442,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $407,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 0c | 106,441$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 58c | 32,068$18,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,679.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 31c | 23,355$7,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,192.62 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 1c | 20,043$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,818.23 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 36c | 18,182$6,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,462.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 32c | 16,432$5,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,146.89 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 0c | 15,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 47c | 12,683$5,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,762.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 72c | 12,282$8,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,895.4 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 1c | 9,055$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…8678backed Yes | 73c | 7,223$5,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 35c | 6,097$2,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,989.23 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 25c | 5,567$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,174.15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 25c | 5,211$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,884.97 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,821 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 6c | 3,900$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,666 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 3,593$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 22c | 3,476$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,707.5 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 40c | 3,191$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…907ebacked No | 1c | 3,106$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…abd3backed No | 69c | 2,959$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 2c | 2,954$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed Yes | 62c | 2,767$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.77 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 1c | 2,610$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1,367.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 2c | 2,518$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 2,430$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…7c0bbacked No | 71c | 2,172$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 59c | 2,163$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.82 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,152$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.74 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 2,083$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.89 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,800$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.84 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 49c | 1,751$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.22 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.75 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 38c | 1,686$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…0f0ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,575$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 9c | 1,545$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.06 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…3611backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +1,090.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 26c | 1,496$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.26 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 61c | 1,490$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.73 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 61c | 1,478$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.85 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 3c | 1,372$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.17 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +272.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 64c | 1,355$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 1c | 1,350$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a79…6296backed No | 75c | 1,322$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Yes | 68c | 1,300$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778b…4e2dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,177$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed Yes | 54c | 1,122$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 7c | 1,102$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 2c | 1,091$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,048$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…0be9backed Yes | 48c | 1,038$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 37c | 1,002$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,000$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.84 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc073…7c59backed Yes | 57c | 975.99$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +308%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 41c | 970.92$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.77 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 900.87$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.16 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 57c | 894.99$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 70c | 893.58$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.39 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 52c | 836$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.28 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeed7…16b2backed Yes | 40c | 800.36$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 761.9$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 703.54$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.83 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 633.96$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.05 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 75c | 624.43$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.11 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…f5e1backed Yes | 5c | 573.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +1,004.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04c9…56cabacked Yes | 2c | 549.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +2,489.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa903…83d3backed Yes | 50c | 535$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…665abacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d4…cd01backed Yes | 57c | 495.93$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 39c | 493.59$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.98 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 36c | 481.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked Yes | 27c | 469.08$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 43c | 457.81$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 452.6$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.85 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed Yes | 5c | 450$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +422.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…f75fbacked Yes | 11c | 440.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +279.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…79e0backed Yes | 56c | 434.78$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…736bbacked Yes | 69c | 432.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 4c | 413.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468c…151ebacked Yes | 7c | 405.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +569.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…aa53backed No | 6c | 392.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 5c | 371.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 50c | 360.7$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.13 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 5c | 351.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 5c | 347.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 32c | 340.32$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.75 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 3c | 335.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes | 3c | 333$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +347.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 6c | 327.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…d339backed Yes | 79c | 316$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 71c | 307.72$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…f4f2backed Yes | 8c | 302.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +662.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +240.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed No | 64c | 292.36$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.16 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 288$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.02 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 7c | 278.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked Yes | 55c | 275.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 26c | 260$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed Yes | 40c | 255$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?this page
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will 125 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.