Commodities · resolved market
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09d7e2f0e3a0e3df610dd375c1681127e73fc37bfc758a93d040c953ddc32740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 15c | 20,480$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,034.76 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…907ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,658$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 2,548$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.94 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 25c | 2,468$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.94 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 1,857$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 49c | 1,737$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.91 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 15c | 1,339$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 9c | 1,130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,024$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.44 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 901$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.44 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 26c | 868.64$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.26 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 40c | 862.34$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.23 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 19c | 741.19$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.52 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 723.54$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 46c | 648.27$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 27c | 628.83$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.16 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 53c | 580.68$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.66 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 69c | 547.53$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…f4f2backed No | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +662.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 50c | 476$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa903…83d3backed No | 50c | 476$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…aa53backed Yes | 5c | 381.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 46c | 361.21$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 350.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.15 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 299.48$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed Yes | 23c | 290$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 288$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 277.79$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked No | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed No | 70c | 240.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…1774backed Yes | 47c | 213.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +255.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 201.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 30c | 193.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…2915backed No | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…736bbacked No | 56c | 178.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 22c | 170$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 138.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 61c | 135.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 27c | 109.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 32c | 109.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a30…eab1backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 97.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 16c | 88.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.59 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 71c | 86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed No | 60c | 85.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…9060backed Yes | 17c | 80.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +68%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 48cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 40c | 79.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 64c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 43c | 63.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 64c | 54.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 54.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 45c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…b109backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 37c | 46.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 47c | 46.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 32.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 42c | 29.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…ca5bbacked No | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 71c | 20.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 20.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?this page
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will 125 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.