AI · resolved market
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a6c706b110cd970198fd99817e118c80c94f74bc74ac1ab65fd7fa79ee27df5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 20c | 9,625$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,682.14 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 5,795$4,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,560.49 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 62c | 2,725$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.89 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e3…9696backed No | 1c | 2,296$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed No | 4c | 2,271$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed Yes | 16c | 1,259$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.74 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 74c | 1,137$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.16 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 10c | 1,045$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 32c | 1,003$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.31 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 44c | 957.26$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.02 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a52…d74cbacked Yes | 80c | 626.77$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 573.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 12c | 557.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 525.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.49 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 521$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.41 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 476.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 469.77$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.65 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…3e32backed Yes | 48c | 467.31$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +162.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 78c | 450.93$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.68 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…264ebacked Yes | 67c | 424.13$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.89 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 21c | 397.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 352.59$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.02 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 4c | 348.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 14c | 341.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 46c | 330$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 28c | 328$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.82 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 69c | 308.09$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 280.2$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.69 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 19c | 260$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…6a78backed No | 5c | 221.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 16c | 210$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 27c | 200$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 77c | 191.18$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 24c | 156.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.74 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 139.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 51c | 139.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…9d03backed No | 10c | 129.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 79c | 120.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 23c | 104.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…ba26backed Yes | 44c | 90.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 28c | 68.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 74c | 63.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…c5bebacked Yes | 23c | 60.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +238.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 58c | 57.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 37c | 57.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…6357backed Yes | 62c | 38.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 43c | 36.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Yes | 36c | 34.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…dbebbacked No | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?this page
- Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?No won
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.