AI · resolved market
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fd88b964ac857396166f3372ad517cd8c2ac95c99fae12c2a6fffedba88be77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 32c | 7,933$2,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,511.44 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 7c | 7,522$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.33 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed No | 24c | 4,500$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,405.55 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,594$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.87 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Yes | 0c | 2,326$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…6d53backed No | 20c | 2,154$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +390.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 39c | 1,308$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.29 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 1,282$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.82 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…9999backed No | 20c | 976.27$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…3e32backed No | 17c | 749.18$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +162.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 79c | 705$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 29c | 698.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 640.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 21c | 635.11$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.98 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.64 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 28c | 539.6$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 52c | 534$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.27 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 517.22$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.79 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 502.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.04 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 10c | 489$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 473.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fc…4c49backed Yes | 79c | 471.17$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 73c | 449.89$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.07 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 398.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 40c | 385.61$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.95 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 378.05$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.14 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 25c | 344.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 49c | 330$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 24c | 321$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.96 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 52c | 294$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 290.7$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…7275backed Yes | 74c | 250$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +337.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 42c | 240.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.07 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 9c | 209.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -84%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59b8…11a5backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 72c | 200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 8c | 186.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 179.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 44c | 175$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 80c | 173.61$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed No | 7c | 163.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.98 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 72c | 151.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 143.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…a676backed Yes | 73c | 141.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 140.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…15e5backed No | 20c | 112$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 27c | 108.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 44c | 103.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…d3f0backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…c5bebacked No | 27c | 84.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +238.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 36c | 82.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 79c | 81.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 80c | 80$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 19c | 77.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 29c | 71.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…0483backed Yes | 19c | 65.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 18c | 64.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…ff96backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 80c | 54$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed2…6630backed No | 73c | 50.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6152…d8f3backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +174.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…1b0dbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…e637backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +174.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…d394backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…f5bbbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +172.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdc…f5e4backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +174.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +232.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.7wins | -0.42per pick | 61cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 41c | 49.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc8…cbdbbacked Yes | 79c | 46.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…e9fbbacked Yes | 79c | 44.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1a…10f9backed Yes | 79c | 43.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…5039backed Yes | 80c | 42.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc6…36f2backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…1094backed Yes | 79c | 37.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…59c0backed Yes | 79c | 37.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c7…8a66backed Yes | 73c | 22.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…5d02backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 20.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9748…91e1backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 71c | 17.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?this page
- Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.