Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f5c38ce4a7734508ab59af8c1c1277288213baedcd656f922b7715829d81559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 55c | 664.14$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.37 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 10c | 258.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 50c | 246.02$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.54 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 45c | 222$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 62c | 197$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 49c | 169$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 45c | 155$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 46c | 132.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 117.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 51c | 114.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 108.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 108.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 43c | 108.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 63c | 102$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 62c | 99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 42c | 93.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 49c | 92.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 86.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 59c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 76.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf358…ab49backed Yes | 68c | 73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 54c | 64.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 45c | 60.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 46c | 60.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…3242backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…d27fbacked No | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed No | 63c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 41c | 48.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 59c | 47.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 58c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 41.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…a2e3backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 37.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…08babacked Yes | 66c | 31.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…d116backed Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec9…30e5backed Yes | 58c | 30.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…fd3cbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…9d57backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd927…c7d4backed Yes | 58c | 26.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedcb…54b1backed No | 49c | 22.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…5010backed Yes | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 73c | 17.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.