AI · resolved market
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x310ce024f4ece47299cb2559c9578f4180af5bd8a23ae704e5e0bcac4c5e2ba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 7c | 5,707$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.52 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 4,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…ca9bbacked No | 80c | 3,257$2,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 1,482$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…09c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 933.08$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…6efbbacked Yes | 19c | 840$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…6857backed Yes | 41c | 483.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 5c | 466$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…5c87backed Yes | 4c | 421.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 412.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 335.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…1032backed Yes | 18c | 334.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes | 12c | 308.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6074…f9f7backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 6c | 298.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…0494backed Yes | 8c | 260.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 255.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 12c | 242.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…c055backed Yes | 43c | 234.38$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 230$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…72e9backed Yes | 34c | 219$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 218.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked Yes | 48c | 210.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 8c | 204.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 52c | 201.07$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 6c | 178.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 14c | 169.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…1839backed Yes | 14c | 168$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 160.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 157.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 26c | 139.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ee…cc59backed Yes | 9c | 125.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…91c0backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6057…9a52backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04d…7f3fbacked Yes | 17c | 83.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812c…a94dbacked Yes | 13c | 83.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb63…7188backed Yes | 32c | 83.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 68.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 19c | 63.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 25c | 57.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 75c | 48.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 24c | 45.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 62c | 37.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a55…a0c3backed Yes | 47c | 36.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb3…694bbacked Yes | 46c | 36.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…af09backed No | 40c | 31.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…dbebbacked No | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 44c | 25.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19f…f745backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe582…b6dcbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e88…2a2ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…8864backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…7cbdbacked No | 57c | 19.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 80c | 19.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 18.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?this page
- Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026?No won
- Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Waymo operate in 9 cities on June 30 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.