Music · resolved market
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x935b3f6056d8265355e7a51c0a89cea9b83096e904a22be1f8bfd802f21ebadc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 56c | 3,131$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.01 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…eb36backed No | 38c | 1,266$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 62c | 781.28$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.89 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…7b24backed Yes | 41c | 735.31$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 679.93$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.34 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7b…08aebacked Yes | 64c | 667.85$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked Yes | 74c | 624.86$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 503$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.08 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 486.92$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.19 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…6385backed Yes | 47c | 413.77$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 356.25$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.53 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 347.44$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.71 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 316.9$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 32c | 296.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…3767backed Yes | 46c | 285.21$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 23c | 269.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 265.01$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9d…6703backed Yes | 55c | 247.78$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…648cbacked Yes | 33c | 236.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 233.78$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.34 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 195$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 18c | 194.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 194.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 40c | 190.34$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 179.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…5a08backed No | 71c | 176.2$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 158.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 150.73$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 39c | 149$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 40c | 148.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 29c | 143.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 54c | 142.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 52c | 136.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 67c | 136.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 55c | 130$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 129.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 38c | 122.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.68 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 106.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 30c | 105$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 55c | 104.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 63c | 103.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 98.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 49c | 98.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 32c | 95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 42c | 91.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 34c | 91.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 90.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 57c | 82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 62c | 77.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 56cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…8ed2backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed No | 19c | 73.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +482.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed No | 56c | 58.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 33c | 58.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 27c | 58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 57.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…6532backed Yes | 58c | 52.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 54c | 51.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 27c | 50.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…1b0dbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…e637backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…66c7backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e8…637abacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…079bbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…bc1cbacked No | 26c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 41c | 38.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 33.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed Yes | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 56c | 31.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 36c | 28.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcb…54b1backed Yes | 59c | 25.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked No | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 66c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…25a7backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de6…b08bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 56c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 59c | 18.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?this page
- Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?No won
- Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.