Music · resolved market
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8396ccba67daa355b7586ddf0eb4ef08c48c8d6f81351ac3a0c640af60e118c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 21c | 4,438$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,486.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 30c | 3,685$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,586.18 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…eb36backed Yes | 40c | 1,520$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7b…08aebacked No | 79c | 1,306$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked No | 55c | 988.49$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 49c | 729.87$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.96 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 679.96$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.92 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed No | 56c | 482.37$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 465$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.67 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked Yes | 12c | 415.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +722.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…cedbbacked Yes | 18c | 411.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 65c | 375.93$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.61 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fd…bfbdbacked Yes | 63c | 330$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 77c | 324$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 323.46$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.39 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…7b24backed Yes | 63c | 308.69$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 53c | 299.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 7c | 296.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 72c | 296.01$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 292.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.38 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 47c | 283.66$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.54 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 280.3$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.45 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 280$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.84 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 270.13$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 265.01$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 23c | 255.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.69 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 237.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 213.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 51c | 205.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 63c | 200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 41c | 198.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 195$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 194.81$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 160$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 152.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed Yes | 9c | 151.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +959.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 150$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 76cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 149$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 32c | 137.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.61 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 112.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 112.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…6055backed Yes | 44c | 110.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 103.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…2443backed Yes | 72c | 101.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed Yes | 16c | 89.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +482.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 29c | 84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 26c | 80.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 57c | 72.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 56cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 44c | 69.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 65c | 62.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 61.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 48c | 60.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Yes | 23c | 59.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 27c | 58.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 57.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 63c | 51.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 48c | 48.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…25a7backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 42.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3875…a45ebacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…08babacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 66c | 34.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…b789backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 44c | 28.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…b48cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…aed1backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce23…8440backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8e…2175backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd0…15b2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 70c | 17.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?this page
- Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?No won
- Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.