Music · resolved market
Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e9fae98c59574b63626266d7607babe2fe34a65a687933ff6c36a5b6fa8d483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5cd…6055backed Yes | 4c | 1,053$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 53c | 774.61$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.08 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 64c | 628.53$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.91 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 35c | 509.77$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed Yes | 36c | 428.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 64c | 390$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…8ed2backed Yes | 15c | 288.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 33c | 287.79$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…6385backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 210.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 51c | 207.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…5a08backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 199.7$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb84…a2dfbacked No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +216%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 57c | 165.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fd…bfbdbacked No | 69c | 165.63$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683c…0308backed Yes | 11c | 131.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 59c | 117.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…afb9backed Yes | 42c | 112.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 51c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed No | 54c | 98.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f5…56efbacked Yes | 51c | 96.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 74c | 91.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 85.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 46c | 83.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 65c | 67.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 63c | 64.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 58c | 57.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 71c | 53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 45c | 46.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…1751backed No | 48c | 42.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef9…8f58backed Yes | 39c | 34.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 66c | 34.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…aa24backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f7…e5eebacked Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 77c | 22.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 56cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 64c | 22.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 56c | 21.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 20.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c1…452fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 57c | 18.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?this page
- Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?Yes won
- Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.