Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50b162c18909342dd6b9b3bc504f626805c2076a9379a1baee3f780f0f70db2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 33c | 1,732$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.3 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 3c | 419.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 5c | 357.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 321$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 270.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 5c | 237.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 41c | 214$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 210.17$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 168.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 149.14$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 137.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 123.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 114$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 108.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 39c | 88.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 75.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 34c | 67.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 24c | 66.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 44c | 60.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 59.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 59.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 58.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 53.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 28c | 53.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 50.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 65c | 44.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 36c | 42.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 38.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 47c | 38.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 65c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 40c | 29.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 28.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 45c | 27.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 58c | 26.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 68c | 23.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 54c | 22.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 22.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 64c | 17.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.