Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fa5f48d6a8eb922846066862a28f298af2176a8843793dbd09f48b5bee45e62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 603.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf099…c6d1backed No | 21c | 380.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 25c | 361.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.46 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 317.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 236.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 7c | 206.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 9c | 170.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.59 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 149.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 19c | 148.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 137.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 13c | 125.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd85…d333backed No | 11c | 104.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 16c | 94.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 88.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 60c | 78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 72.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 80c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 27c | 68.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 26c | 66.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 27c | 66.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 76c | 65.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 73c | 64.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 25c | 52.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 22c | 52.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 25c | 50.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 49.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 23c | 45.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked Yes | 23c | 45.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 69c | 38.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…b20bbacked Yes | 29c | 38.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 30.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 53c | 28.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 74c | 15.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.