TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,190

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,121 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ccd…2cc2backed Yes55c502.79$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes43c441.02$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8310539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes54c408.24$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22016134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No45c359.28$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.872,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes50c317.36$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1137942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No45c263.67$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.7856543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c233.51$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes48c213.91$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.313,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No53c210.15$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.564,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes26c199.59$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7316937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No53c173.72$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.764,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No74c172.75$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5164460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No48c157.03$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8375546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes39c129.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.021,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No52c122.34$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.553,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes48c119.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.63455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No58c111.88$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.528,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes46c108.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5725954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed No64c108$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9616641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes31c104.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.467,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes51c104.4$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2632041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes48c102.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.522550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No55c95.97$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7161820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked No54c92.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9822446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes48c85.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6394552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No52c82$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.361,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No68c82$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.865,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No62c76.38$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8843559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes51c71.81$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.442148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes19c70.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.378537.6%32 W · 53 L+15.1wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+161.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No56c69.97$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7958152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No47c67.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.84,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No46c66.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4770148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes29c65.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.748,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes46c65.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No49c56.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.727056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x470e…a01fbacked No54c55.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.881338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-41.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No61c52.44$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.452,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No60c52.43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9787629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes22c52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.415230.8%16 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No58c51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No61c51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.892,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes45c51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0414524.1%35 W · 110 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No53c50.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7533746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No63c50.07$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.431,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No44c50.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.021,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2785049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4a…31e3backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.54654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+23.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes40c49.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.954,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes41c48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.681233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes47c45.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2115950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No43c44.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5753855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae5f…bc30backed No56c43.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.389339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0f…b52abacked No58c42.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.947855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8bb9…7895backed No58c42.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.72757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No69c41.36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6479040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.646148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes41c38.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.881,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c37.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.149,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No61c36.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6134853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes35c35.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.381,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed Yes42c33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9844465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No44c32.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1257948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed No59c32.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.311958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1a…8572backed Yes59c31.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.652161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1441…0b51backed Yes48c31.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.252133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c10…5269backed Yes49c30.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No56c29.46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9653951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2f37…1952backed No56c28.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.546437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc0b…a782backed Yes50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351537.5%193 W · 322 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No63c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.521,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc799…e4f6backed No77c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No50c22.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.082,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes55c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1444536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.253258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.423668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00fe…52e2backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64353.5%23 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c96…42efbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103183.9%26 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No73c15.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.131,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.