Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cdc7f505b444443b4aa0a015814c79ba574c26c57e53e7cbcbb052f6c55bd1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 17c | 1,560$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.84 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 57c | 1,312$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.65 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 31c | 1,238$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.76 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 72c | 1,090$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.45 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34f…72d3backed No | 51c | 993.89$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 48c | 944.04$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.36 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 58c | 889.79$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.5 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 53c | 816.33$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.05 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…5c9dbacked Yes | 69c | 507.76$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 79c | 503.78$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 36c | 491.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.75 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 32c | 425.67$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 424.98$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 19c | 325$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.36 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 51c | 313.65$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.21 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 52c | 245.76$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 207.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd241…fab0backed Yes | 61c | 196.24$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 55c | 193.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 39c | 192$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 190.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 183.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 32c | 177.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed Yes | 48c | 175.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 154$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 56c | 152.57$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 33c | 142$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 49c | 117$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 116.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 29c | 111.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 62c | 109$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…ce38backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 28c | 89.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 84.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 40c | 78.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 71.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd51…6a52backed Yes | 50c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…c4b8backed Yes | 55c | 47.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed Yes | 72c | 40.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 54c | 36.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 43c | 28.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17bc…88d6backed Yes | 54c | 28.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…9b6abacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.