Tweets · resolved market
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab9164543b7d44d7a31f0ec27eedea5acd459707b5e359d4cfdd16d9e2b99cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 30c | 1,100$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.27 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 27c | 791.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.55 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 30c | 710.32$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.75 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 40c | 707.2$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.15 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 55c | 473.27$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 73c | 337.98$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 32c | 217.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 210.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 204$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 69c | 185.06$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 44c | 182.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 157.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 33c | 152.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 66c | 146.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 138.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 137.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…0499backed Yes | 38c | 136.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 118$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 116.26$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 116.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 68c | 112.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 101.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 66c | 101$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 71c | 99.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 80.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 217 | 57.6%125 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…d6cbbacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…6798backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 76c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 22c | 66.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 54c | 63.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 73c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 26c | 59.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 41c | 54.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 51.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…f20fbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 49c | 43.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 73c | 40.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 32c | 36.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 35.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb3…4807backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 39c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked Yes | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…9b6abacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 74c | 22.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?this page
- Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
- Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.