Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7278f3a6914039688c66be286dff6861e1af3237dc3808c9d850e1dcf202545f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 13c | 9,831$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.71 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 14c | 3,778$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.43 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 18c | 3,759$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.63 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 14c | 1,330$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.49 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked No | 9c | 1,234$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…172abacked No | 5c | 845.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 10c | 765.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 650.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 76c | 636.99$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 523.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 16c | 311.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x636d…33a7backed Yes | 76c | 276.93$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 251$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 78c | 220.29$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 217.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 29c | 189.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe6…2769backed Yes | 69c | 166.18$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 55c | 109.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.42per pick | 44cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 20c | 106.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b9…58a7backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 97.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 95.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 73.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 73c | 68.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a6…c13fbacked Yes | 54c | 46.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 66c | 45.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 80c | 44.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…7cc0backed No | 39c | 35.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 31c | 35.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 61c | 32.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…4383backed Yes | 63c | 31.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4856…86debacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…439ebacked Yes | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?this page
- Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?No won
- Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?No won
- Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?No won
- Will 175 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.