Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf993c3e214a129cf57a0eac7e7c48a0830c478bc58204e803a2e655a1e3e6bd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 3c | 3,857$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,407$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 1,313$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…172bbacked Yes | 30c | 477.94$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 470.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 5c | 428$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 334.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 306.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 29c | 282.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 30c | 271.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 271.48$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 6c | 208.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 6c | 173.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 29c | 131.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 120.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 110.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 27c | 105.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 100.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 100.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…87b5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 99.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 72c | 99.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 81.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 32c | 74.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 56.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 24c | 49.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 25c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 33c | 44.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 65c | 41.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4ea7backed Yes | 33c | 35.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 32.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 30.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 73c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 65c | 18.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 69c | 14.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.