TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,704 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38e9…4355backed Yes28c1,443$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.93580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+103%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes17c1,441$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.892028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes24c861.75$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.094,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes29c652.33$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.878,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes3c520$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.881,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes27c510.59$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.8810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed No3c499.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.523429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No69c356.03$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.9553855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c353.41$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.8212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c329$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.895,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No73c282.43$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.13,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No71c232.02$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.851,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…71fcbacked No73c200$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1461637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c199$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.414,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c174.08$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.719,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed No78c150$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.512941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed No72c142.85$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8534922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes9c141.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.091,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes30c129.66$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.54,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c126.76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.797,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes15c125.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No70c114.77$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2849551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No78c108.97$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.171,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes12c105.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.113,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes32c100$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.168335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd489…7f08backed No80c98.86$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.099566.3%63 W · 32 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes28c97.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4525954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes18c97.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.761,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c91.01$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.284,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes15c88.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.262638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes15c83.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.761,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No73c82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.862,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes35c75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.523941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No40c70.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.322,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes33c70$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.933350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No73c67.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.221,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes33c63.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.572,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8976…4ea7backed Yes36c62.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.541947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes26c62.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.175546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No79c59.94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3564859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes25c58.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8546240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a95…2551backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1224732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3330442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.59746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa012…2af7backed No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.56061.7%37 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6a…65e1backed No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.510147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes33c47.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9727248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes29c47.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.922,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes26c45.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.572948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes32c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes33c42.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.943148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No66c40.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5791861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No76c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.443848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaafb…e81ebacked No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015275.7%115 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No74c39.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.567,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No76c39.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329c…3667backed Yes30c38.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8812334.1%42 W · 81 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes31c36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0148919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes70c35.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5582268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5137056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No73c32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.362,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No73c29.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.746743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes67c26.95$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.957949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c25.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.925,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No45c25.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.432,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No73c25.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4214161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.42,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes48c24.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.882,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes65c22.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0243559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No74c21.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.182,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.41,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No77c19.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3980275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes66c18.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.321,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x8116…b2a8backed No64c17.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4812152.1%63 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No73c17.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8477851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No63c17.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.982,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No71c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.