Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc651b8cd53501785eabe02d9382332ce43e0fb895508440e3836e133730b9a9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 77c | 811.53$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.66 | 379 | 56.5%214 W · 165 L | +32.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 30c | 573.53$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 433.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 2,374 | 20.6%490 W · 1,884 L | -61.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 33c | 361.27$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 341 | 42.8%146 W · 195 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 62c | 355.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.62 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 329$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.67 | 5,855 | 60%3,512 W · 2,343 L | -114.9wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 320.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 15c | 238.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 730 | 42.2%308 W · 422 L | +23.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 234.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 3,428 | 31.2%1,068 W · 2,360 L | -38.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 231.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 27c | 229.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 1,879 | 25.4%478 W · 1,401 L | +137.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 212.89$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 32c | 202.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 13c | 170.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3,156 | 49.6%1,565 W · 1,591 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…c224backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 16c | 145.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 144.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 4,728 | 26.5%1,255 W · 3,473 L | +64.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 144$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 4,323 | 53.6%2,317 W · 2,006 L | +158.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 25c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 139.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 133.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 6,203 | 49.2%3,054 W · 3,149 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 129$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 4,636 | 58.3%2,701 W · 1,935 L | -115.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 122.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 10,010 | 45.9%4,590 W · 5,420 L | -314.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 116.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 24c | 116.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 108.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 44c | 108.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 12,587 | 46.8%5,897 W · 6,690 L | -42.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 107$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 106.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 11,017 | 37.3%4,111 W · 6,906 L | +434.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 39c | 105.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 99.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 700 | 35.3%247 W · 453 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 90.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 4,494 | 65.1%2,924 W · 1,570 L | +15.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4ea7backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 36c | 84.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 2,255 | 56.9%1,284 W · 971 L | +64.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 26c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,302 | 58.3%1,342 W · 960 L | +85.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 46c | 72.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 40c | 70.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 2,272 | 58.3%1,324 W · 948 L | +86.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 69.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1,197 | 38.1%456 W · 741 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 65.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2,242 | 59.1%1,326 W · 916 L | +111.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 39c | 64.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 1,270 | 59.8%760 W · 510 L | +37.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 38c | 60.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 473 | 39.7%188 W · 285 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 58.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,313 | 59.2%1,370 W · 943 L | +117.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 54c | 55.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 27c | 54.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 47c | 50.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 161 | 46%74 W · 87 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 248 | 31.9%79 W · 169 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 46.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 2,357 | 58.7%1,384 W · 973 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…4cd5backed Yes | 34c | 45.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…2bb9backed Yes | 67c | 44.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 43.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 43c | 42.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 333 | 39.6%132 W · 201 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 75c | 41.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 530 | 52.5%278 W · 252 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 34c | 39.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 586 | 58%340 W · 246 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 35c | 37.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 807 | 47.3%382 W · 425 L | -28.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 66c | 37.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 473 | 44%208 W · 265 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed No | 53c | 37.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 45c | 35.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 889 | 50.6%450 W · 439 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 35.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 5,071 | 53.5%2,715 W · 2,356 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 47c | 33.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 203 | 41.4%84 W · 119 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 48c | 33.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2,267 | 57%1,292 W · 975 L | +70.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 40c | 32.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 47c | 31.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 31.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 3,212 | 53.6%1,721 W · 1,491 L | -103.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 31.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 7,234 | 9.3%675 W · 6,559 L | -1,116.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 68c | 30.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 41c | 30.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,243 | 56%1,256 W · 987 L | +53.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 60c | 29.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 69c | 29.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 53c | 28.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d4…5ba7backed No | 66c | 26.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 61c | 23.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,050 | 68.8%722 W · 328 L | -33.0wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked No | 72c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 2,233 | 56.7%1,266 W · 967 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.