Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a3023c8a0f26fa5773265d6876ff0dbfa908e53cad4791a6ca9527317aa7ef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 68c | 913$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.17 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 903.22$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 522.51$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 424.18$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 203.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 197.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 68c | 192.09$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 67c | 165.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 7c | 154.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 151.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 74c | 137$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 35c | 133.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 31c | 131.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 131.15$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 33c | 129$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 120.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 119.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 112.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 36c | 97.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 91.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 86.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 79.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 76.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 22c | 67.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 58c | 60.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 58.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 31c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 32c | 55.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 33c | 54.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 64c | 52.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 50.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 58c | 50.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 34c | 47.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 46.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 44.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 36c | 44.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 28c | 41.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 38c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 40c | 36.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 36c | 35.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 65c | 31.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed Yes | 41c | 30.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 26.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 26.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 26.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…1e8cbacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 66c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 22.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 69c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 57c | 20.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9ed8backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 61c | 19.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 68c | 19.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.