Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa0d44558ea60c31c376c454c63853c7ede61bb560c05b08bc0b4fa28aa1aa0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 1,768$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.72 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 30c | 587.62$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.08 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 484.64$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 481.34$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 75c | 433.46$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 410.45$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 70c | 408.25$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.58 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 350.67$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 80c | 330$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 329.21$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 327.05$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 79c | 227.96$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 206.52$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.02 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 185.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.69 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 9c | 183.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 9c | 182.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 18c | 159.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 76c | 154.83$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.67 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 143.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.84 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 141.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 140.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 125.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.63 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 125$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 116$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.61 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 115.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 107.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 73c | 106.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 105.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…d22ebacked Yes | 76c | 102.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb8…a530backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 79c | 96.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 64c | 94.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 77c | 83.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 15c | 79.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 78.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 46c | 78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 24c | 77.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 69.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 43c | 66.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 39c | 64.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 78c | 63.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 25c | 62.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 64c | 54.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4e…9321backed Yes | 72c | 54.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 24c | 54.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…5805backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…bd96backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…65e1backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 69c | 49.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 48.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 77c | 46.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 60c | 41.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 38c | 38.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 38.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 76c | 35.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 35.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 41c | 34.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 34.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 66c | 34.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 76c | 32.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 41c | 31.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 38c | 30.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 30.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 39c | 27.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…a523backed No | 77c | 27.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 25.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9ed8backed Yes | 71c | 24.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 63c | 23.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 23.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 52c | 21.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 21.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 64c | 20.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 60c | 18.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf85…f199backed No | 68c | 16.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 75c | 15.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 79c | 13.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.