Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x054e7e05e3400a6eff18c58b86a9f5a173e75c507896a201266379621d1db127
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 11c | 1,222$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 427.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 20c | 421.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 25c | 377.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 307.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 27c | 304.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 14c | 291.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 19c | 212.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 200.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 193.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 26c | 181$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…faddbacked Yes | 13c | 154.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 127.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 18c | 120.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 116.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 107.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 96.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 19c | 94.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 15c | 92.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 16c | 84.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 16c | 84.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 24c | 63.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 79c | 55.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 18c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 29.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9ed8backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.