Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02586d449e76ff6341ad26b23862d3e0783c1741119f0e2bc76f8484db93189a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 42c | 869.75$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.23 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 4c | 523.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 37c | 322.18$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 316.54$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 280.37$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 272.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 230.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 223.7$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 207.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 61c | 195.65$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 32c | 190.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.82 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 185.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 185.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.39 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 176.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 28c | 134.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 131.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 128.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 125$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 116.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 64c | 115.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 104.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 72c | 103.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 102.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 100.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 93.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 40c | 89.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 33c | 85.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 84.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 27c | 78.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 69c | 77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 55c | 73.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 71.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 58c | 61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 36c | 60.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 59.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 58c | 50.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 48.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…1e8cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 65c | 42.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…8c7ebacked Yes | 36c | 41.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 33c | 39.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed Yes | 28c | 38.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 38c | 37.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 75c | 35.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 34.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 62c | 31.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8782…0968backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 24.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 75c | 22.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 75c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 71c | 16.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 71c | 16.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.