Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2e3297670671149c4fc137318989fd4c14112eb29e2169a72bce957892f773f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 29c | 790.11$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.76 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 60c | 645.66$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 496.06$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.99 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 427.17$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 33c | 354.76$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 288.31$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 16c | 198.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 193.7$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 43c | 157.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 114.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 110.62$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 109.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 102.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 98.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 27c | 94.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 34c | 91.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 73.6$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 32c | 70.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 67c | 66.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 75c | 56.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 70c | 55.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 51.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…65e1backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 46.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 26c | 40.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 37.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 35.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8782…0968backed Yes | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed No | 49c | 26.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 74c | 26.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 22.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.