Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf68640be0770763444cdb7276913ed566ca24e91d684eca37b75ed8c3a48a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $205,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 4c | 18,709$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.62 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 49c | 8,776$4,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,278.73 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 64c | 6,489$4,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,131.14 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 63c | 5,789$3,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,166.21 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 43c | 4,895$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,788.75 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 16c | 4,216$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.8 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 37c | 4,054$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.8 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 79c | 3,723$2,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.8 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 47c | 3,457$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.19 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,673$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.45 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 39c | 2,507$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.1 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 50c | 2,424$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.88 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 40c | 2,390$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.52 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 66c | 2,264$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 2,250$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.06 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 35c | 2,174$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,407.84 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 42c | 2,058$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.37 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,884$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.04 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 28c | 1,859$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.45 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 47c | 1,776$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.87 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 1,775$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.87 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No | 56c | 1,760$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.53 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 60c | 1,604$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.91 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,600$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.6 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 45c | 1,572$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.84 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 1,531$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.85 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 1,483$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.21 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 36c | 1,465$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.78 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 1,449$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.65 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 14c | 1,429$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.12 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 1,387$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.4 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 22c | 1,352$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.15 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 37c | 1,304$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.98 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 19c | 1,293$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.05 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 57c | 1,250$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.48 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 75c | 1,239$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.55 | 140 | 15.7%22 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 42c | 1,190$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.74 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 64c | 1,129$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.77 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 14c | 1,100$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed No | 65c | 1,100$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.98 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 49c | 1,061$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.99 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 45c | 1,044$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.76 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 1,006$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.12 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 42c | 988.84$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.42 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked No | 60c | 972.19$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.34 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked Yes | 77c | 969.36$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.81 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 45c | 947.91$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.97 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 33c | 935.27$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 35c | 879.56$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 51c | 872.06$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.92 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 812.29$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.21 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 30c | 776.72$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.47 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 27c | 746.83$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.96 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked No | 76c | 737.87$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 15c | 700$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 39c | 670.62$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.47 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 24c | 648.99$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.74 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 56c | 632.76$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.2 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 34c | 629.93$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.18 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…c922backed Yes | 60c | 622.04$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 17c | 600.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 18c | 594.18$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.11 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad8…8125backed No | 79c | 577.94$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 32c | 567.73$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.11 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed No | 61c | 560$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 20c | 558.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 18c | 550.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 15c | 541.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 535.25$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.23 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 50c | 526.28$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.3 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 35c | 510.46$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.77 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 42c | 509.92$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.76 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 34c | 501.47$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.64 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed No | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 30c | 463.51$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 435.8$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.04 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…513dbacked Yes | 15c | 428.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 54c | 426.05$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 44c | 423.34$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.87 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 26c | 422.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 36c | 419.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.19 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 71c | 414.56$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.98 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 71c | 409.76$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.97 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 77c | 400.96$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 13c | 399.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 63c | 395.58$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.65 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 35c | 385.37$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.72 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9e…fa03backed Yes | 15c | 382.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 382.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.54 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 63c | 369.77$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…52a0backed Yes | 56c | 366.09$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed Yes | 21c | 358.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e6…2d79backed Yes | 63c | 320$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…8c18backed No | 56c | 319.97$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.79 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…07ffbacked Yes | 59c | 316.8$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.79 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…c9a0backed Yes | 68c | 305.41$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.96 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 62c | 304.4$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.3 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.