Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x299ff09c0a334a6b62520ce54b5ba318639cded40c0a482833d5edd19d809c06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 0c | 40,108$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,272$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 0c | 8,018$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 12c | 7,525$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.1 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 6,986$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 6,600$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.92 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 5c | 6,367$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.91 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 0c | 6,061$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 4c | 4,552$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.72 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 1c | 2,876$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 30c | 2,402$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.23 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 2c | 2,145$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 1c | 2,016$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,900$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,900$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.24 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 8c | 1,523$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 4c | 1,400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,293$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 4c | 1,222$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 8c | 1,182$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 873.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 21c | 758.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.49 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…2487backed Yes | 3c | 749.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 18c | 720.39$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.67 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 12c | 686.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 15c | 655.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 7c | 641$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 599.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 14c | 514.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 500.65$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 13c | 491.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…1f2abacked Yes | 28c | 483.05$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 3c | 477.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 18c | 473.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked No | 74c | 465.46$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.02 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 9c | 339.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 318.29$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 31c | 310$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 11c | 306.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 301.76$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…09c7backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…0b39backed Yes | 20c | 297.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 32c | 288.94$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 16c | 277.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…cdc3backed Yes | 17c | 260$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 33c | 259.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 30c | 213.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8040…c787backed Yes | 6c | 210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 70c | 194$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 192.53$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…d61ebacked Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 13c | 175$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 75c | 168.02$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 163.62$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 135$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 125$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d6…e59ebacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4381…6bd6backed Yes | 15c | 107.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes | 29c | 100.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…584cbacked Yes | 17c | 86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 72c | 86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 32c | 81.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9e…fa03backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…2274backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 16c | 79.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 25c | 72.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…2b1ebacked Yes | 15c | 69.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 32c | 61.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…a4febacked Yes | 32c | 61.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 71c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 71c | 49.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 140 | 15.7%22 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb65…8a30backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…372fbacked Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…6759backed Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x717d…a4c1backed Yes | 32c | 37.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 69c | 34.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 76c | 25.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e1…555dbacked No | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…04c5backed No | 69c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac3…cef8backed No | 69c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b25…7fdabacked No | 69c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.