Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12f41495368762c249e7ff069a1484f8954a34d178bafc6bfbfda0c473fd6dff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 0c | 32,127$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 5c | 18,037$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.92 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 50c | 6,985$3,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,492.58 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 43c | 6,291$2,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,555.85 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 47c | 5,631$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,004.52 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 17c | 4,754$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,932.89 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 45c | 4,156$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,281.59 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 42c | 3,792$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,196.7 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 67c | 3,678$2,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.12 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 3,170$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.66 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 40c | 2,794$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.85 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 2,372$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.87 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 47c | 2,244$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.95 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 69c | 2,057$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.22 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 39c | 1,903$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.8 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,802$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.65 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 37c | 1,651$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.26 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,550$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.99 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 48c | 1,452$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.18 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 1,441$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.92 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…583ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,375$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.05 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 1,247$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.06 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 30c | 1,225$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.65 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 42c | 1,175$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.28 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 37c | 1,157$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.29 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 55c | 1,152$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.18 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 31c | 1,074$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.06 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 28c | 998.11$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.93 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 67c | 947.91$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.25 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 37c | 929.27$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.95 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 47c | 849.01$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.84 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 34c | 826.27$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.62 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 812.29$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.97 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 46c | 792.8$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 760.01$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.04 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 48c | 739.54$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.15 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 27c | 715.7$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.16 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 47c | 707.31$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.87 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…513dbacked Yes | 27c | 695.33$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.51 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 21c | 669.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.15 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 622.17$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.2 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…c922backed Yes | 37c | 622$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 50c | 618.45$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.37 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 53c | 610.23$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.76 | 140 | 15.7%22 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…d3dfbacked Yes | 55c | 605.64$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 31c | 602.98$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.81 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 42c | 599.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 538.77$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.5 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 56c | 533.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.87 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 50c | 512.55$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.49 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 40c | 510.92$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.55 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 38c | 470.73$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.52 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 53c | 449.42$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.34 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 45c | 439.91$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 27c | 439.07$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.57 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 436.04$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.41 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 435.8$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.96 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 49c | 418.82$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.82 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 17c | 399.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.99 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 71c | 383.06$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.46 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 78c | 377.2$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.06 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 28c | 345.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.9 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 32c | 343.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.4 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 50c | 336.54$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.65 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…fa7abacked No | 78c | 328.01$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 26c | 317.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.12 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 316.62$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.73 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 53c | 310.65$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.36 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 305.83$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.78 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 61c | 301.76$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.1 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 33c | 301.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.99 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c81…bd7cbacked Yes | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 34c | 299.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.98 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 39c | 295$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.95 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaee…2fffbacked Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…1f2abacked Yes | 50c | 278.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 33c | 276.13$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.55 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 262.77$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.56 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked No | 56c | 256.05$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.86 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 51c | 250.75$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.16 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…a4c2backed No | 68c | 240$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.24 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 40c | 229.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…6a12backed Yes | 18c | 223.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.18 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 46c | 217$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 24c | 204.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes | 28c | 199.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 58c | 193.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…0465backed Yes | 53c | 184.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 55c | 180.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9e…fa03backed Yes | 48c | 175.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 40c | 169.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…1e60backed No | 50c | 166.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 35c | 165.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…db99backed Yes | 55c | 156.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…dd45backed Yes | 39c | 153.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.