World Politics · resolved market
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b1fcab34a900d498a84e7691d8fb1dbb83ba74eb00cc3b27fe669f32ebd6d53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 18c | 734.02$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.12 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…ffc9backed Yes | 9c | 596.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1694…8badbacked Yes | 27c | 287.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 13c | 281$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 156.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 80c | 145$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 131$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 117.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 78c | 116$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…0e00backed Yes | 23c | 98.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 96.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f72…22c7backed Yes | 23c | 78.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 62.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 29c | 59.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 77c | 58.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 54.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 54.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…0fe1backed No | 77c | 46.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…4f7cbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 26c | 40.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…6cacbacked Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 27.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 12.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.9%?this page
- Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 4.5%?No won
- Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?No won
- Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?No won
- Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?Yes won
- Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.4%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.