Movies · resolved market
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 95m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a3d0a1cd279bc3e8d510f8d28e81855287193f9b77949d147eede859a8fd8b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 17c | 10,010$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.17 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 11c | 4,000$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…9712backed Yes | 9c | 3,082$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.49 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,922$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,875$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,559$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 7c | 1,504$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…2345backed Yes | 7c | 1,485$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b71…cb46backed Yes | 7c | 1,233$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,077$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 931.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…57aabacked Yes | 8c | 804.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 707.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes | 5c | 679.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…9d34backed Yes | 8c | 517.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 6c | 299.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 6c | 224$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 8c | 196.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 16c | 191.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 7c | 160.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 95m?this page
- Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m?No won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 77m and 86m?No won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 95m?No won
- Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.