Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac311eb28742cf5b122374feee01e8736a69f7b865888740a8697aa38bfc3331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 2,896$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.91 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 694.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 350$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 41c | 316.95$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.44 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 290$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.96 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 267.82$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…03adbacked Yes | 37c | 246.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 210.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 200.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 76c | 195.71$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 195.64$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 182.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 174$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 68c | 168.25$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 45c | 162.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 154.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 144.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 140.03$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 24c | 139$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 137.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 115.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 20c | 111.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 110.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 19c | 96.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 95.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 95.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 93.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 39c | 89.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 86.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 85.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 62c | 83.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 63c | 78.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 67c | 75.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 72.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 62.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.37 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 64c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 64c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 65c | 59.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 53.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 50.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 69c | 48.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 78c | 42.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 38c | 35.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 35.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 35c | 32.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 69c | 29.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 35c | 29.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 62c | 29.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 36c | 28.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…a960backed No | 61c | 27.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 62c | 27.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…8de9backed No | 58c | 25.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…a523backed No | 69c | 19.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 67c | 17.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 66c | 17.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.