Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa321bd03b80521f1c030f082efb95a76e5a42aec3d63e36e7d5a73754f480b47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47f0…da2bbacked No | 15c | 548$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 12c | 467.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 26c | 299.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.39 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 42c | 205.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.39 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 174.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 24c | 148$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 73c | 136.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 115.34$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 14c | 112.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…8bcbbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…49c3backed No | 57c | 81.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 73.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 60c | 59.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 56c | 58.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 57c | 56.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 55.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 54.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 52.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…622dbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked Yes | 31c | 43.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 37.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 37.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 34.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 33.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 41c | 29.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 57c | 28.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 60c | 26.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 62c | 25.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 23.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 56c | 22.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 25?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.