AI · resolved market
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04317f61c3531028ba929fdbf978ffa3291d387deaa45da898660d2dd0cff9e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 28c | 4,077$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.58 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 17c | 2,415$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cf…c6ebbacked Yes | 58c | 1,716$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…6780backed Yes | 80c | 769.19$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…1182backed Yes | 67c | 624.95$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 10c | 604.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 544.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 67c | 452.24$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.24 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd7…fc56backed Yes | 64c | 379.69$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 363.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 353.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 7c | 308.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…0059backed Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 78c | 269.37$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 79c | 232$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa6…d54abacked Yes | 65c | 186.16$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 79c | 168.52$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 74c | 165.04$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…4e09backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…0a99backed No | 11c | 132.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 128.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 9c | 128.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 58c | 125$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 50c | 124.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…279ebacked No | 31c | 116.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc74…2a94backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 99.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 12c | 95.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 69c | 88.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…e05fbacked Yes | 79c | 83.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 14c | 77.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 38c | 72.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…c15fbacked No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 18c | 64.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…336bbacked Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…25a7backed No | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…b86fbacked Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 54.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 20c | 54.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 28c | 51.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8653…0d6bbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb6…e89dbacked Yes | 71c | 49.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 62c | 45.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 54c | 43.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…26c0backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf6…b886backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 39.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…aed1backed No | 35c | 39.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 41c | 26.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Yes | 71c | 21.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…2388backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…5ce0backed No | 63c | 19.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 79c | 18.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…815ebacked Yes | 68c | 16.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?this page
- Will any other model be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?No won
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?No won
- Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.