Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42fd95bf708987bb9a49012017ea2c7ecead779303f53379709fddbfa4f19d46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 38c | 630.65$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.48 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 173$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.91 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 163.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 58c | 123$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 55c | 96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…21e8backed Yes | 68c | 86.32$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 38c | 86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 71c | 71.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked Yes | 31c | 63.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.46per pick | 38cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 35c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed No | 59c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 30c | 53.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…a546backed Yes | 27c | 51.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 46.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 35c | 39.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 38.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed Yes | 32c | 37.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +209.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 58c | 33.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 41c | 24.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 57c | 20.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June?this page
- Will UK annual inflation be 2.1% or less in June?No won
- Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June?No won
- Will UK annual inflation be between 2.8% and 3% in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.