Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a3e3b5e2297da5a1da5624e2559f472dc7381c05a2b5662de1b4ee395c07cf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 66c | 1,568$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.7 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 30c | 406.98$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.02 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 34c | 324$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 225$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 34c | 150.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 137.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 34c | 123$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 115.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 33c | 101.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 70c | 96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…f51cbacked Yes | 34c | 95.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2415…c70bbacked Yes | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca7…8966backed Yes | 34c | 70.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 67.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 70c | 54.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 37c | 53.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 50.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 63c | 49.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 26c | 49.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…55d6backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b38abacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…2fffbacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…3306backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…3241backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe518…f0fcbacked Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57b4backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 34c | 36.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…af02backed No | 62c | 32.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…c43ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.46per pick | 38cpaid | +158.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 43c | 31.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 43c | 31.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed No | 79c | 22.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 80c | 21.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June?this page
- Will UK annual inflation be 2.1% or less in June?No won
- Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June?Yes won
- Will UK annual inflation be between 2.8% and 3% in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.