Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will UK annual inflation be 2.1% or less in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad9136443e2a9768e806a0631d452226bc720779ff8b3323497681d2c373636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 837$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.71 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 28c | 264.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 70c | 192.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 23c | 121$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 116$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 106.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 73c | 96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 92.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 73c | 76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 58.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 50.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…5630backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 25c | 49.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 41.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 28c | 39.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 79c | 25.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…bb55backed No | 79c | 16.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UK annual inflation be 2.1% or less in June?this page
- Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June?No won
- Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June?Yes won
- Will UK annual inflation be between 2.8% and 3% in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.