Tweets · resolved market
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40c698d4cdc346662c898be4b1bc719c1c28b46a4928a0f367516e9ec1726b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 46c | 1,436$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.71 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 22c | 322.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.6 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 228.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 47c | 182$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 44c | 140.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 36c | 139.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 63c | 110.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 14c | 101.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 97.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 57c | 54.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 61c | 48.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 65c | 42.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 40c | 41.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 40.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 65c | 35.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 56c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…d807backed Yes | 68c | 18.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?this page
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.