Tweets · resolved market
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84d404e861ce16a26983f463376ad543dca25589c17a8f2b3ac26ee553d71c62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63d7…7659backed Yes | 30c | 717.93$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 26c | 281.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 172.85$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 113.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 70c | 90.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 70c | 88.32$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 82.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…3975backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…f0e0backed Yes | 31c | 77.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 37c | 75.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 32c | 61.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 61.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 71c | 58.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 31c | 54.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 51c | 50.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 62c | 47.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd563…92d7backed Yes | 32c | 46.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 46.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 40c | 40.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5736…aed1backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…25a7backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 218 | 57.8%126 W · 92 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 30c | 39.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?this page
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.