AI · resolved market
Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82d83bc566117c05567c4365f8ed3745b2b4077c8f5e4412c7a98b5d4e876301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 59c | 2,161$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.87 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 699.99$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.99 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…6962backed Yes | 61c | 648.26$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…841abacked Yes | 45c | 570.68$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 458.43$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.91 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 448.67$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.33 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 38c | 411.05$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.73 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 56c | 394.48$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.87 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 357.13$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…abd3backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 264.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.16 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 37c | 262$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.06 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 239.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 36c | 231.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.17 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 33c | 206.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.08 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 11c | 190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9b…e768backed Yes | 18c | 185.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…6d5fbacked Yes | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 132.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x791f…e166backed No | 38c | 129.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +262.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 126.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 37c | 126$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 120.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…d327backed Yes | 38c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 37c | 116$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…9999backed No | 37c | 114.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 109.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 49c | 108.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9800…9a33backed Yes | 62c | 101.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 39c | 95.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 11c | 93.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 38c | 85.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd388…0190backed Yes | 20c | 74.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 37c | 71.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 19c | 70.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked No | 40c | 69.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 45c | 63.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 40c | 63.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 65c | 61.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 60.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 60.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked No | 75c | 58.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…dde4backed Yes | 24c | 57.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 56.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 20c | 56.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 34c | 53.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…2fc0backed Yes | 43c | 53.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 51.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 22c | 50.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…928fbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 58c | 49.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 41c | 48.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 40c | 45.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf5…9d6fbacked No | 77c | 37.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 71c | 36.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 34.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 31.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5034…38b7backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…c5bebacked No | 48c | 21.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +238.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 50c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 55c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebbf…cf44backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…2676backed No | 60c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?this page
- Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Yes won
- Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.