AI · resolved market
Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84f40b563120c22020b404c3aae11f7c82812703cb52fdcb235b76c7035eb1b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked No | 57c | 1,754$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 45c | 1,274$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.06 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 52c | 911.6$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.57 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 862.05$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.07 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 48c | 862.04$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.76 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 582.3$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.12 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 48c | 580.89$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.83 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce75…588abacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 51c | 371.75$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.16 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf47e…5031backed Yes | 45c | 324.85$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…8e32backed Yes | 43c | 232.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 47c | 204.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 157.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9b…e768backed Yes | 47c | 122.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 118$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 117.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 20c | 105.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…e241backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…d0e5backed No | 52c | 81.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 29c | 79.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 66.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…ab15backed Yes | 56c | 64.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 51c | 57.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 53.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 23c | 52.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…7273backed No | 55c | 50.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…4cfcbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.7wins | -0.42per pick | 61cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…99a1backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 41c | 45.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…f543backed Yes | 41c | 41.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 40.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…928fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 58c | 33.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked No | 53c | 25.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 53c | 22.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…d1a1backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…7e61backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?this page
- Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.