AI · resolved market
Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a0246866b77911be6ce8760e2d130d80ea96856a7e6abc217a25aa04c5f9039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,418$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.16 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 10c | 876.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.56 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 36c | 463.7$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 443.19$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.67 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…abd3backed Yes | 67c | 313.43$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 269.85$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 268$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 258.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791f…e166backed Yes | 39c | 240.7$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +262.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 231.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…7be3backed Yes | 30c | 209$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 18c | 190$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 60c | 165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 33c | 160.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…6d5fbacked No | 43c | 141.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 79c | 120$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 111.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9b…e768backed Yes | 18c | 101.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 46c | 91.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 84.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 78.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 74c | 76.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 75.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 71.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce75…588abacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 69.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 29c | 68.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 21c | 65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 57.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Yes | 46c | 56.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 30c | 53.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 36c | 53.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88dd…c02dbacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 50.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 58c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 80c | 33.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0b…ca40backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 54c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 57c | 18.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?this page
- Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?No won
- Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.