Tweets · resolved market
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x936dd1749d15d03dcef0713d01a5e5d39783153261ddb34dba9043c2efb128e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 24c | 615.28$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.56 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked Yes | 12c | 315$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 75c | 261.2$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 27c | 252.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.11 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 58c | 220.36$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 18c | 139.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 34c | 94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 33c | 84.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff0e…6536backed Yes | 22c | 75.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 63.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…ee76backed Yes | 22c | 50.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 23c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…0499backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 21.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 145 | 75.9%110 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?this page
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.