Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c555c4530020f13a57f42e15991170a0c372be6e419233c08099809bf94102a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 8c | 3,896$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,573.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,061$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.18 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed Yes | 13c | 991$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed Yes | 11c | 899$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 11c | 828$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 8c | 764.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 763.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 45c | 630.36$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.93 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed Yes | 9c | 607.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.76 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x317b…c4c3backed Yes | 80c | 551$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 462.24$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2705…4137backed No | 30c | 345.68$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 32c | 315.77$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.81 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 305.56$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 25c | 295.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 7c | 286.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +293.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 56c | 260$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 250$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 9c | 240$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 234.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 191.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 21c | 156.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 48c | 145$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed No | 10c | 118.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…9340backed Yes | 11c | 117.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 95.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…4c3abacked Yes | 79c | 84.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 80c | 62.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 26c | 61.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 59c | 49.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 63c | 27.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 74c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?this page
- Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.