Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9db7047919d5245e67093111dc43444cea7c9aef9b2b00a22752792677af750a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 3,062$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 3c | 2,775$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 12c | 2,719$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 20c | 1,548$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 12c | 1,299$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.8 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 15c | 850$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 15c | 847$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed Yes | 18c | 837$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 18c | 820$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 18c | 803$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 16c | 787$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 16c | 776$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes | 16c | 733$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 678.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 15c | 626$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 15c | 590$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 15c | 563$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 80c | 553$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed No | 80c | 527$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 4c | 440.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 3c | 406.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 10c | 401.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…2d6fbacked Yes | 8c | 329$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed Yes | 16c | 308$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 16c | 265$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 153.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 18c | 92.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?this page
- Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.