Weather · resolved market
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafe51cdedad143d1f220b328aae33e0084e44d849e3f7180ae0f14fc33082b88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 0c | 20,013$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 3,025$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 53c | 2,955$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 25c | 2,536$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 21c | 2,478$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 58c | 1,917$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.14 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,905$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.47 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 66c | 1,359$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.34 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked No | 70c | 1,323$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed No | 70c | 1,269$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…8e1ebacked No | 79c | 1,171$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 42c | 1,129$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.29 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed No | 79c | 1,025$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 79c | 1,017$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,016$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked Yes | 42c | 986$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed Yes | 21c | 949$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed Yes | 30c | 871$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 30c | 865$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked Yes | 30c | 856$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 78c | 782$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 78c | 761$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 57c | 755$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 28c | 739.77$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed Yes | 43c | 730$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 57c | 730$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked No | 74c | 702$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 42c | 618.25$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.69 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 43c | 539$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.77 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked No | 62c | 527$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 58c | 495$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed No | 78c | 479$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 42c | 410$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 391$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…c41ebacked Yes | 29c | 382.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 26c | 373$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 58c | 336.38$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed Yes | 26c | 329$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed No | 43c | 327.83$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +293.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…8087backed No | 72c | 319.45$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 312$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…a978backed No | 79c | 290$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 287.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 72c | 260$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 59c | 243.73$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 53c | 240$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 234.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 43c | 216$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d1…4210backed Yes | 59c | 209.13$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 35c | 196.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.22 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 193.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.59 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 30c | 189.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed Yes | 45c | 179.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 62c | 179.56$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…1a85backed Yes | 37c | 176$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 174$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 166.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 52c | 160.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 32c | 158.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 67c | 145.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 21c | 145$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…2d31backed Yes | 67c | 141.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 40c | 140.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 38c | 131.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 41c | 129.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 116$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…56a3backed Yes | 74c | 110$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…2c40backed Yes | 65c | 109.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 32c | 106.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 64c | 93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0951…71cabacked Yes | 18c | 80.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed No | 72c | 79.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 71.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 70.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 19c | 65.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629e…6be4backed Yes | 33c | 63.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Yes | 47c | 61.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…2900backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 40c | 56.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…100cbacked Yes | 54c | 52.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…ff33backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 39c | 48.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac07…7156backed Yes | 58c | 47.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 46.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…5395backed Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 62c | 43.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84d…cc32backed Yes | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 40.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…e064backed No | 50c | 39.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…875abacked No | 60c | 38.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 38c | 37.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…02aabacked Yes | 63c | 36.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?this page
- Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.