Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33c2e986cd71e942ae35fd6c25b8effb4132fedfe74a98a4241980c2ea6ebea7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 29c | 8,076$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed Yes | 12c | 1,475$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.97 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 15c | 1,103$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed Yes | 12c | 1,088$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 15c | 1,074$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 12c | 1,043$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 706.5$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes | 14c | 572$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 554.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 68c | 491$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked No | 68c | 487.48$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.57 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…3c17backed Yes | 29c | 452.95$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 14c | 387$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 14c | 383$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 14c | 376$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 14c | 372$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 18c | 310$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 285.94$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 276$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 267$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 14c | 249$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 29c | 240$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed No | 70c | 238.25$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 233.84$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 32c | 233.67$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 18c | 211.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 48c | 208.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 13c | 208.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes | 14c | 194$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 178.56$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed No | 77c | 175$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 16c | 145$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 28c | 143$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 65c | 140.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 140.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 30c | 139.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…c41ebacked Yes | 33c | 132.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 127.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 73c | 125.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 68c | 119.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02d1…4210backed Yes | 18c | 110.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0951…71cabacked Yes | 11c | 96.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 96.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 32c | 91.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 79c | 90.24$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 18c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 83.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 68c | 83.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 28c | 64.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed No | 78c | 51.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…10d3backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…b649backed Yes | 35c | 45.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…33e2backed No | 74c | 36.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 59c | 34.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 32c | 33.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…02aabacked No | 67c | 30.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 26.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…ec11backed Yes | 45c | 25.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 16.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?this page
- Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.