Weather · resolved market
Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9795c74dee64799e0e25484c075dcc44f11ba03b95b9e41540004df544d639c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 1c | 6,864$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 3,593$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,739$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +293.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 40c | 116.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 14c | 90.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0951…71cabacked No | 47c | 51.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…475fbacked No | 52c | 45.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked No | 79c | 39.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 14 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?this page
- Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.