Token Launches · resolved market
Linea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc23a9584fdf3f605509c02db1f8bba539d45eba6bbd38ad63adb57f590377121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3499…2858backed Yes | 50c | 3,310$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x001e…b3afbacked No | 53c | 3,262$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed Yes | 1c | 3,041$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…4141backed Yes | 44c | 896.31$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 53c | 888.06$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.42 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 3c | 778.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed Yes | 54c | 775.63$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.54 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Yes | 45c | 614.95$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 62c | 587.97$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.21 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 57c | 580$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.09 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 560.85$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.73 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f7…06b8backed No | 64c | 549.52$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.54 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 50c | 546.42$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 60c | 520.18$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.61 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2e31backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 77c | 477.85$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…8775backed No | 50c | 454.17$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 52c | 383.59$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.51 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 49c | 380.29$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68e…e704backed Yes | 53c | 380$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…155abacked No | 77c | 365.36$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 53c | 337.53$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.9 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…57e6backed No | 59c | 332.7$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…ff26backed Yes | 49c | 303.93$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0b…8996backed No | 48c | 301.73$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.44 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c01…67f8backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…8c50backed Yes | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372c…86e2backed Yes | 47c | 229.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…0872backed Yes | 59c | 225$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabd…f562backed No | 50c | 218.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed No | 46c | 216$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…9664backed Yes | 51c | 200.51$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 200.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…9e27backed Yes | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 50c | 199.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked No | 30c | 195.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…4424backed Yes | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…39cebacked Yes | 45c | 177.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1548…147fbacked Yes | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…237cbacked No | 61c | 164.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 23c | 147.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 50c | 143.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 62c | 133.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 29c | 113.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…90b5backed Yes | 53c | 112.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…dcdebacked Yes | 42c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…3a01backed No | 49c | 101.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5713…a086backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…6d39backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -61%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae25…9a48backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…14f3backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 70c | 98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…b082backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 55c | 86.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 26c | 80.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 26c | 76.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 64.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd557…f3cfbacked No | 60c | 63.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 70c | 60.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 60.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…ca11backed Yes | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…4defbacked No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…8d5abacked Yes | 51c | 52.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…9969backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d9…7ffebacked No | 48c | 50.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84bd…66c7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a79…8e05backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab25…0c63backed Yes | 45c | 43.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…3960backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b4…7af7backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.27per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1df6backed Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…c2b5backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…f516backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24e…053dbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bb…e802backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…2825backed Yes | 45c | 24.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…a7bfbacked Yes | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc7…55c7backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb08…6060backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b0…decebacked Yes | 48c | 21.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…750fbacked Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf0…297abacked Yes | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…244bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d0…5e07backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…8f60backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2caf…b529backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ee…d24abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 58c | 19.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Linea FDV above $2B one day after launch?this page
- Linea FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Linea FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- Linea FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.