Token Launches · resolved market
Linea FDV above $4B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d95987ded4d42a2554604d49385e2e0ab8723594bf1397562d7ebd6ae9d2011
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4114…dc5ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,085$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68e…e704backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,841$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…b27bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,800$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…80aebacked Yes | 9c | 1,570$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 171 | 2.9%5 W · 166 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d8…449bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,085$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…5a98backed Yes | 8c | 993.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 938.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…0872backed Yes | 12c | 827.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 9c | 818.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…4141backed Yes | 9c | 805.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb794…ded3backed Yes | 10c | 584.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 369.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 344.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…14cdbacked Yes | 7c | 273.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab6…8900backed Yes | 12c | 248.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…dcdebacked Yes | 9c | 247.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 8c | 232$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Yes | 9c | 221$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457a…014dbacked Yes | 23c | 220.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9666…7ebebacked Yes | 10c | 213$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…7be4backed Yes | 11c | 208.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 56c | 123.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…18d8backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…4216backed Yes | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Linea FDV above $4B one day after launch?this page
- Linea FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Linea FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Linea FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.