Token Launches · resolved market
Linea FDV above $3B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2800e8bc57d63ac4098b140bd4d9ab60dc565eaee869e459a08b081a81b9bc50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x001e…b3afbacked No | 78c | 6,320$4,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 22c | 4,545$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 80c | 2,975$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.03 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…cc0bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,499$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb794…ded3backed Yes | 14c | 1,445$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…8a04backed Yes | 35c | 1,284$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 14c | 1,205$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc68e…e704backed Yes | 18c | 1,133$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9666…7ebebacked Yes | 16c | 888.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…0bdebacked Yes | 18c | 793.98$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…ff26backed Yes | 16c | 607.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…4141backed Yes | 20c | 598.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 547.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Yes | 24c | 457.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 9c | 405$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 23c | 389.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…413ebacked No | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 18c | 388.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 365.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 361.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d8…449bbacked Yes | 15c | 331.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb993…916ebacked Yes | 17c | 329.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…5a98backed Yes | 16c | 313.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…96a7backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 289.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed Yes | 25c | 282$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…6d3dbacked Yes | 19c | 238.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…ca11backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…7b65backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…2846backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 78c | 181.14$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…7be4backed Yes | 17c | 180.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…90b5backed Yes | 22c | 178.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…768fbacked Yes | 23c | 165$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…dcdebacked Yes | 20c | 162$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…0872backed Yes | 15c | 133.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457a…014dbacked Yes | 40c | 125.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…3960backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…b082backed Yes | 25c | 122$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 10c | 115.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…39cebacked Yes | 14c | 105.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…4424backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1548…147fbacked Yes | 16c | 99.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…b41dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 13c | 81.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +5.4wins | +0.45per pick | 14cpaid | +416.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 17c | 79.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c45…110dbacked Yes | 24c | 62.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Yes | 25c | 40.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Linea FDV above $3B one day after launch?this page
- Linea FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- Linea FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Linea FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.