Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd5a56cb0940dae49bf0f34e8c66aad1d63d49a47e11ea9e65db09b58920504a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 1c | 40,699$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.46 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked Yes | 1c | 34,092$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.3 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d1…7274backed Yes | 1c | 31,489$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…8abfbacked Yes | 1c | 22,812$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.49 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 18,559$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…a769backed Yes | 2c | 4,917$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc0…e50ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,901$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd2…a8c9backed Yes | 1c | 3,164$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…4708backed Yes | 3c | 2,842$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,297$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -93.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,113$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,794$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…ab2bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,481$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…caa4backed Yes | 2c | 1,430$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08aa…b124backed Yes | 2c | 1,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 11c | 1,320$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…bd98backed Yes | 4c | 1,228$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…b97bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…f913backed Yes | 2c | 1,099$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…3533backed Yes | 1c | 1,084$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…4ab1backed Yes | 3c | 1,035$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd359…d361backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 3c | 777.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 771.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e3…93f2backed Yes | 2c | 733$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…cfb3backed Yes | 2c | 585.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9a…06bebacked Yes | 4c | 496.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…516abacked Yes | 10c | 479.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 402.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed Yes | 10c | 246.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 9c | 167.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 13c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318a…906cbacked Yes | 14c | 90.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October meeting?this page
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce an increase at the October meeting?No won
- Will the ECB announce no change at the October meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.