Us Midterms · resolved market
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa1459e8d9579f2bfde5adb23baac7c9ebe85db9222778033cb274de05b1e156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,476 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes | 11c | 25,135$2,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,271.97 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,644$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 6c | 3,159$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.16 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 79c | 2,584$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.71 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed Yes | 68c | 2,069$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 11c | 1,839$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +444.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 1,832$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.84 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…adb9backed Yes | 12c | 1,720$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.05 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,275$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.26 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,083$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.33 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…4673backed No | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 78c | 964.88$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 13c | 699.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.95 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 9c | 564.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +269.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 26c | 528.3$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.07 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 31c | 501.42$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 483.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.15 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 15c | 474.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +561.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 372.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 344.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a3…70c0backed Yes | 19c | 320$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 16c | 287$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.08 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…4488backed Yes | 8c | 286.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,092.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 70c | 284.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked No | 79c | 281$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 47c | 234.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 234.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.5 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 224.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.64 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b9…7e98backed No | 70c | 215.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…2089backed No | 24c | 204.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 198.91$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.88 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 26c | 198$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 192.28$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 11c | 183$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +160.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 14c | 168.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.41 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 15c | 160.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.52 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…a2efbacked Yes | 76c | 159.96$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 18c | 140.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…c6b4backed Yes | 14c | 135.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 12c | 135.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 20c | 128.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 64c | 119.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 64c | 115.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x763f…4bb9backed Yes | 49c | 111.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…744ebacked Yes | 15c | 93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 24c | 90$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 23c | 88.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed No | 20c | 66.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…013cbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 23c | 50.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…f14fbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 56c | 40.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 43c | 38.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 79c | 37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 70c | 35.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 32.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 75c | 23.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed No | 70c | 18.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -81%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…00c8backed No | 70c | 14.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.